The end of telecoms history: a live discussion

Ten years ago, telecom engineer, strategist, and author William Webb shook the industry by predicting 5G would fall short of its bold promises. William’s forecasts have largely held true, and in the second edition of his The End of Telecoms History book, he makes an even bolder case with important implications: in developed markets, networks already provide the connectivity people need.

This reality, William argues, changes everything. If usage is flattening and there are no new “killer apps” on the way to drive exponential demand, then the familiar cycle of new Gs, bigger R&D budgets and ever-faster speeds are no longer justified.

On the latest episode of Zero-Touch Live, William joins Rakuten Symphony CMO Geoff Hollingworth to discuss what connectivity sufficiency means for telco investment, innovation and long-term value creation.

📺 Watch the full replay below.

Following the evidence

William’s thesis rests on a decade of data. Year-on-year growth rates that once ran at 30–40% have slowed into single digits for mobile and even less for fixed-line. He sees video saturation as the key driver: people can only watch so many hours in a day and newer forms of consumption simply displace old ones.

Critics continue to raise familiar objections, which William and Geoff addressed in the interview:

• Generational effects: Digital natives may use more but spread over decades this adds barely a percent to annual growth.
• New devices: VR headsets and smart glasses sell in the millions, not billions, and mostly substitute for smartphone screen time.
• AI traffic: Queries and image uploads are trivial compared to video, and in some cases, AI may even shrink traffic by shortcutting search journeys.
• “Something always comes along”: Beyond the iPhone, little has materially shifted access-network demand in decades. Hoping for another anomaly is not a strategy.

The reality of connectivity sufficiency

If exponential growth is behind us, the industry’s priorities must change, says William:

“The industry should stop assuming each new generation is necessary, since faster speeds are no longer the bottleneck, and instead shift attention to better coverage, reliability and new commercial models, such as neutral host and shared infrastructure.”

He notes that sufficiency isn’t a failure, but a turning point. With stable demand, operators can become more profitable by reducing capital intensity. Vendors must rethink growth assumptions. Policymakers should prioritize reliability over league-table speeds. And all stakeholders need to recalibrate what telecom innovation really means when the race for raw capacity is over.

Watch the interview replay now, check out William’s article from our past Zero-Touch newsletter detailing why he wrote a second edition of the book and learn more about what it covers on his LinkedIn page.

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