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In 2016, concerned about the excessive hype around 5G, telecom engineer, strategist, and author William Webb wrote The 5G Myth to explain why many of the promised breakthroughs were unlikely to materialize. The book challenged the need for higher speeds and greater capacity, arguing that 4G was already sufficient and that user demand for mobile data would plateau by 2027. William’s predictions were informed by a rare combination of technical and regulatory experience. With a PhD in mobile telecoms and a 35-year career that included roles at Ofcom, Motorola, co-founding an IoT start-up, and advising on telecom strategy, he had seen the industry from every angle.
By 2023, much of telecom had accepted that 5G was falling short of expectations. But one idea remained widely held: that user demand for data was still growing exponentially. This belief stood in contrast to actual usage data, which closely matched William’s earlier forecasts. The gap between belief and evidence was the impetus for a new book that would dive into this disconnect.
Published in 2024, The End of Telecoms History argued that, at least in the developed world, we already have the telecoms connectivity we need. Fixed and mobile networks are sufficiently fast and data usage is no longer rising rapidly. Drawing on a decade of trends, the book made the case that a plateau in demand is near.
While the book was widely discussed and generally well received, some critics remained unconvinced. But as time passed, the evidence continued to support its core thesis. William concluded that the argument needed to be made more clearly and in greater depth. In this article, he explains why the second edition of The End of Telecoms History expands on that case and addresses the debate still unfolding across the industry.
It was an exciting time and I’d clearly struck a chord.
When The End of Telecoms History was published last summer, most accepted that my evidential arguments were sound. There was even a noticeable shift in how the likes of Nokia and Ericsson messaged around 5G, evolving from talk of “continual data growth” to “slowing data growth”.
Still, there were some in telecom—especially those who had made predictions that data growth would continue unabated well into the 2030s—who criticized parts of my argument. This was welcome feedback as open disagreement is part of how we test ideas and sharpen thinking.
After Stefan Zehle of Coleago published a blog questioning my conclusions, ForumEurope, where we had both been regular speakers, invited us to debate at the European 5G Conference in Brussels earlier this year. Delegates were asked to choose between my view of plateauing data usage and Stefan’s view that growth would continue and accelerate. Arguments against my thesis included:
In a simple vote at the end of the short debate, the delegates (i.e., regulators or those involved in regulatory affairs within telecoms companies), narrowly preferred the option of continuing growth, despite all the evidence that growth was slowing.
While this was, for many, more a bit of fun than a serious dive into what was actually happening, and while Stefan and I both only had ten minutes to make our cases before debate, nevertheless, I wanted to know why the evidence that I thought was so compelling had not swayed the majority.
I discussed the outcome widely with the delegates afterwards and the sentiment was broadly that “something will turn up to stimulate growth, it always does.”
After that experience and upon reflecting on criticisms of my predictions, I concluded that I had not yet made a strong enough case that data demand is flattening and future network needs are largely already met.
Data that emerged in the months that followed only reinforced my case.
Usage figures published by regulators and analysts since the book's release closely matched my forecast of a plateau around 2027. In the first edition, I noted that mobile data growth was slowing by 5% per year and had declined to 20% in 2023. This provided a clear benchmark to monitor. The 2024 figures showed growth falling further to around 15%, consistent with the prediction.
More notably, absolute levels of GB usage growth have also been falling.
In the past, even as the growth rate declined, the total volume of data was still rising each year because a smaller percentage applied to a larger base still resulted in an absolute increase.
That trend has now reversed, as the growth percentages have become so small and absolute that data volume increases are also declining.
In parallel, AI has continued to gain momentum since last year, sparking debate about whether it will drive increased traffic on fixed and mobile networks.
Indeed, Ericsson acknowledged that mobile data growth was slowing but suggested that AI would be the main reason for it to pick back up again. They were not alone.
As the choruses of “AI will save us” rang throughout the industry, the need for a second edition of The End of Telecoms History was undeniable. Not to revise my view, but to make the case more clearly amid the backdrop of one of the fastest adoptions of new technology that we have ever experienced.
As I developed the first edition, my colleague, technology and management consultant Dennis Roberson, provided excellent advice and critique. As his input grew, he rightly became a co-author for this second edition, offering valuable input across a wide range of areas and injecting much-needed rigor into the text.
It was clear no end of data would convince those who believe that “something will come along” even if they have no idea what this might be. In fact, history tells us only one such “thing” of significance from a data usage perspective has ever done that: explosion of mobile internet use sparked by the iPhone, which combined a breakthrough user interface with an ecosystem that made online access seamless and essential.
In the 18 years since, nothing has emerged that meaningfully increases data rate demand.
Instead, we have simply seen greater adoption of video on devices that, in essence, have not changed since 2007.
Arguing that “something always comes along” looks deeply flawed in this context. In reality, these optimists are hoping for another anomaly with no evidence it will materialize.
Perhaps it will never be possible to convince those who hold more of a religious than a logical viewpoint towards whether we have sufficient data rates and network capacity. But the new edition of the book makes a much stronger case for why this has never been more true, focusing on how:
The book’s thesis has not only survived robust critique but has grown stronger through thoughtful response to the critiques and with the consideration of additional data. Though still not popular in some quarters, it is rapidly becoming the mainstream view in 2025.
In the second edition, we lay out why:
I’m looking forward to joining the Zero-Touch Live program next week to discuss the new book, hear from readers and defend our now strengthened thesis. Please join us by registering and be sure to comment and be part of this critical dialogue.
